• jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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    16 hours ago

    Ooh… that’s a FANTASTIC idea that Iowa and New Hampshire will never let happen. ;)

    I think the trick is each state would need to run two primaries, but then some already do, and some run a caucus AND a primary.

    The problem here would be burning through all the blue states and not getting enough delegates to become the nominee. Then you really WOULD have Red states picking the candidate.

    Yeah, based on this delegate counter:

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/delegate-count-by-state

    By the time you burned through all the blue states, you’d have assigned 2,541 delegates with 1,976 needed to be the nominee. It’s possible that someone wouldn’t hit that number just based on the blue states.

    Under this model, the Democratic Primary for 2028 would be this, then invert it for the Republican Primary.

    District of Columbia - 90.3% - 39 delegates
    Vermont - 63.2% - 33
    Maryland - 62.6% - 134
    Massachusetts - 61.2% - 132
    Hawaii - 60.6% - 24
    California - 58.5% - 587
    Washington - 57.2% - 132
    Delaware - 56.6% - 37
    Connecticut - 56.4% - 88
    New York - 55.9% - 274
    Rhode Island - 55.5% - 45
    Oregon - 55.3% - 89
    Illinois - 54.4% - 222
    Colorado - 54.2% - 104
    Maine - 52.4% - 46
    New Jersey - 52.0% - 175
    New Mexico - 51.9% - 56
    Virginia - 51.8% - 99
    NE-2 - 51.3% - 65
    Minnesota - 50.9% - 114
    New Hampshire - 50.7% - 46

    Pennsylvania - 48.7%
    Wisconsin - 48.7%
    Georgia - 48.5%
    Michigan - 48.3%
    North Carolina - 47.7%
    Nevada - 47.5%
    Arizona - 46.7%
    ME-2 - 44.8%
    Ohio - 43.9%
    Florida - 43.0%
    Iowa - 42.5%
    Texas - 42.5%
    Alaska - 41.4%
    Kansas - 41.0%
    South Carolina - 40.4%
    Missouri - 40.1%
    Indiana - 39.6%
    Nebraska - 38.9%
    Montana - 38.5%
    Louisiana - 38.2%
    Mississippi - 38.0%
    Utah - 37.8%
    Tennessee - 34.5%
    South Dakota - 34.2%
    Alabama - 34.1%
    Kentucky - 33.9%
    Arkansas - 33.6%
    Oklahoma - 31.9%
    North Dakota - 30.5%
    Idaho - 30.4%
    West Virginia - 28.1%
    Wyoming - 25.8%